Tuesday, April 19, 2016

2016 Boston Marathon Race Analysis


I ran 3:42:40 in yesterday's 120th Boston Marathon -- and although it's one of my slowest marathon race times to date -- I actually think it may be the best race I've ever run tactically under the warmer weather conditions and moderate headwinds of Boston yesterday.  I finished about 3500 places above my seeding (15162) and was passing runners throughout the entire 26 miles which for me is always an indication of a strong race performance.



As I sit here on a flight home to Seattle from Boston this afternoon reflecting on my race performance, I'm struck by just how fast the Boston Marathon weekend -- and even the race itself -- has come and gone.    Official training for me started exactly 15 weeks ago yesterday on January 11th when I was coming off a couple of weeks of rest after the December Honolulu Marathon.  All of the months of training and recovery and battling a persistent lower-right leg tendon strain all came down to 10:25 am EDT on a sunny and overly warm morning in Hopkinton at the start of wave 2.

I arrived in Boston early Friday evening and managed to get 3 great nights of sleep (including Sunday evening before the race itself).    I've found that for me in particular a lot of high quality sleep in the week before the race itself is crucial to a good outcome.  Travel to other marathons such as Boston 2012, New York 2013 and even Honolulu 2014 had hampered my quality sleep in the past so I made special efforts this time to be in bed early and get an extra 1-2 hours a night which paid off in yesterday's race.

Like everyone running this year's race, I'd been watching the race forecast for over 2 weeks.  The forecast had been oscillating between highs spanning the low 60's up to the low 70's with tailwinds out of the west for the warmer forecast and a headwind out of the east for the cooler temperature.   As race day approached late last week the forecast seemed to be narrowing in on something in the low 60's for Boston with moderate headwinds of 7-9 mph.     As luck would have it, Saturday afternoon the forecast changed for higher temperatures and slightly stronger headwinds on Monday.   The forecast for Boston was a high of 65 degrees but out west and away from the water in Hopkinton, Framingham and Newton it was for closer to 70.   Given the race doesn't begin until after 10:00 am, this meant that the meat of the race and through the Newton Hills between miles 16-20 -- it was going to be warm.    As it turns out, the weather was once again a fairly strong factor on the final marathon outcomes here in Boston (as it was for me in 2012 when I last raced here and temperatures peaked at 90 in the Newton Hills and race day was simply a matter of surviving and getting to the finish line).

Getting up and to the race Monday morning went like clock work.   I was up by 5:00 am to eat and prepare and out of the hotel by 6:00 am headed to the Boston Commons to catch a bus up to Hopkinton.   I walked out of my hotel room at the same time as another runner just down the hall (Rusty from San Louis Obispo who was hoping to run a 3:05:00 and had qualified with a 3:15:00).  We caught the bus together and hung out in Runner's Village exchanging small talk and stories from other marathons we'd run.  As this was his first Boston Marathon, I shared stories from my experience in 2012 when I'd qualified with a 3:20 and had come to Boston prepared to race a 3:14 only to be destroyed by the rolling hills of the course as well as the 90-degree temperatures that day.   I couldn't have run the course more incorrectly than I did back in 2012.   I told him that in my opinion this was a course best suited to lay back on in the early miles and stay a little above goal pace, lean in through the 5 miles of the Newton Hills giving back even a little more time -- and then try to really air it out from mile 21 to the finish.    

I noticed right away when we got to the Runner's Village that the temperature in the sun was warmer than I expected given it was only 7:45 AM.    In fact, as time passed and the first call for Wave-1 runners approached we nervously watched as the temperature rose to 65 well before the sun was very high in the sky.     As wave-1 was being called there was the typical frantic push for a final bathroom stop (although the starting line has a massive bank of porto-potties) which was irritating for anyone sitting within 200' of the bathrooms as the lines snaked all around the ground we'd staked out.   Once most of the wave-1 runners cleared out it calmed down a good deal and there was more room to maneuver.   The call for wave-2 runners was only another 35 minutes or so after wave-1 which was nice as I was done with all the waiting at this point and just ready to go as it was getting warmer and warmer sitting around.

The walk to the starting corrals I believe is something like .60 to .70 of a mile. It was nice to just mindlessly walk to the starting line listening to the banter and the shouts of encouragement from those lining the streets of Hopkinton.     Once I got to the starting area we had about 15 minutes before the gun so I made a quick beeline for a final restroom stop and then got to starting Corral 8 which is the back of wave-2 (I was seeded 15162 running a 3:27:30 vs. something in the low 9,000's when I ran a 3:20:00 to get into the 2012 race).    I definitely would've preferred the earlier start time by 25 minutes with the heat which will be incentive to run a faster qualifying time in the future.   I took a final gel just before we took off, and with that the 2016 Boston Marathon began for me.

While it's fresh I want to say that although the Boston Marathon course is net downhill and features the Newton Hills from miles 16 - 21 followed by a downhill stretch into Boston and mile 24, this is really a course of rolling hills with very few -- if any -- long stretches of flat terrain.    It's not at all evident from the course elevation map as it really amplifies the major ascents and descents, but mile after mile of this course is really smaller uphill and then downhill climbs -- which really places a beating on your quads and will incrementally take its toll as the miles go on.

The opening 2 miles of the race and in general first 5 miles are downhill out of Hopkinton.   In particular the first 1/2 mile is very downhill with a a hill thrown in near the end of mile 1.   My goal was to run 8:15 splits the first 2 miles and something in the 41:00 - 41:30 range for an opening 5 miles before ideally settling into running 8:00 average pace the next 10 miles up to the start of the Newton Hills at mile 16.     People were flying past me the first 2 miles while I held back and ran opening splits of 8:12 and 8:11 (I REALLY had to rein it in).   It would've been a cakewalk to roll a couple of 7:30's here and open with a 15:00 2-mile time with 1 minute in the bank -- but trust me -- and everyone else who's run this course wisely -- this is not the place to bank time.     I also noticed right away that it was quite warm at this point (approaching 10:45 am).  I am guessing the temperature out in this section of the course peaked near 70 if not higher.

Miles 3 - 5 were uneventful knocking them out in 8:12, 8:00 and 8:19 (with the 8:00 coming off a downhill and the 8:19 off of a short, somewhat steep uphill of a couple hundred yards in length).   As I mentioned above, these short little rolling hills are a constant throughout the first 16 miles of the race -- and they served to keep me away from pushing my goal time of 8:00 or faster as I knew I needed gas in the tank to run the hills starting at 16 and then attempt to hit the gas from 21 miles in.

After getting through mile 5 in a pedestrian, albeit comfortable 40:56, I really focused in running the next 11 miles steady and comfortable pace -- hoping to gain back some time against my goal pace.   Miles 6 - 10 were punctuated by simply incredible levels of crowd support as we passed through smallish New England towns where folks were all celebrating and doing a fantastic job of cheering everyone along with massive amounts of infectious energy and encouragement (and ample amount of booze!).    I love this race and find the level of crowd support simply the best.   I've run the New York City Marathon, and while the crowd support there is fantastic, Boston takes it to a completely different level. That fact that's it's a state holiday and the warmer temperatures just add to the party atmosphere along the whole race route.  It's something every marathoner should try and experience one time as a bucket list item.  

Pace-wise I ran the second 5 miles in 41:19 and 8:15 pace and 82:15 / 8:13's for 10 miles.   I think it's really here where I realized that 8:00's or better weren't coming easy with the terrain of the course along with the heat which I was really starting to feel -- so I adjusted my goal closer to a 3:40:00 or better (My official race B-goal was sub 3:44:00 and accounted for exactly this scenario minus the heat and headwind).     The hills through the first 10 miles, albeit small ones were constant and kept me from finding an 8:00 pace -- not because I couldn't drop down to it -- I just didn't have the confidence that with the heat and wind -- a faster pacing strategy was going to end well for me from mile 21 on.   In fact, I probably could've run an opening 13.1 miles in low 1:40's or even 1:39's -- but the suffering over the next 13.1 miles would've simply crushed me and led to something more than 4:00:00 for a finishing time.  

It turned out to be a wise decision as miles 10 - 16 were even warmer than the first 10 miles (I was starting to feel very hot and could feel myself slowing down -- and there was nothing I could do about it as I've not trained in 70 degree weather since last September if not longer).   I hit the half marathon point in around 1:48:00 which was 60-90 seconds slower than I'd hoped for; however,  I was starting to pass a lot of people and feeling stronger as the race progressed.  

The stretch leading to the Newton Hills at mile 16 was quite warm, but I managed to get through it with limited suffering running 8:19 pace for the segment and overall 8:16 pace for the marathon through 16 miles.  At this point, I was on plan to stay below my 8:20 target and could tell that the heat and wind were taking an increasingly high toll on runners around me as I continued to pass more people.   As an aside, this actually proved to be a bit of a double-edged sword for me as I found myself in a larger group of runners I was passing and was never able to tuck behind anyone or get into a pack and be protected from the wind with runners around the same pace as me.  Instead I ran most of the first 16 miles exposed to the moderate headwind which was also starting to take a toll on me as made the turn at the Newton fire station and started 5 miles of hill climbing.

My race strategy had me going out conservatively through 5 miles followed by trying to get back closer to 8:00 minute splits and pace average from mile 5 to 16 followed by running the Newton Hills segment in something between 8:30 - 9:00 pace.    At this point, I still felt quite strong and relaxed into the first of the 4 hills; although, I did feel quite hot as the sun was now blazing down and the wind was growing stronger and becoming more of a consistent headwind.  

I relaxed on each of the hills and tried to just cruise on the backside of each hill before the next one pacing 8:43, 8:56, 8:29, 8:59 and 9:22 to close out Heartbreak Hill.    I passed many runners here who were overheating or just walking to rest their legs before the downhill push into Boston from mile 21, but I was overall pleased to get through this section in under 9:00 pace given I basically did absolutely zero hill training during my marathon training cycle due to my tendon injury (and yes as I was running I was definitely doing the "what-if I hadn't been injured scenario" in my head as I was having such a strong race under the hard conditions).    In hindsight, as I write this race report, I am wondering a bit if I'd been better to push harder through here and run closer to 8:30's vs. 8:55's; however it only would've netted me back 90 seconds at most and may have really hurt my closing pace over the last 5 miles).

As I was working my way through the 4 Newton Hills, mentally I was really preparing myself to come out of Heartbreak Hill and hit the gas.  My goal had been to get through 21 miles in 2:48 for the case I was having an "A" race and something around 2:58 for a "B" race.  I crested Heartbreak Hill (which has a false top by the way as you proceed downhill and then have a quick, short uphill climb before you are truly through it) right at 2:58:00 and had roughly 5.2 miles to the finish line.   Doing some quick math, I knew I had to run 8:00 splits coming in to be around what would be a fantastic A- time of 3:39 and change.    The last 2 months I've been training for exactly this scenario albeit more like running the last 3 miles of fast-finish long runs below goal pace,  but felt I had a chance as I was feeling fine and continued to pass a lot of people as I crested the final hill.

If there's any disappointment I have with my performance yesterday it's this next race segment through the finish line.    As I accelerated into mile 22 I rolled off an 8:17 with a lot of this mile being run down in the 7:40 range -- but the wind was really starting to crush me as we dropped down through Boston College.  The temperature thankfully dropped as well, but what was before a moderate head/shoulder wind was now a dead headwind with some strong gusts that felt like an invisible hand pushing against my own progress as hard I willed my legs to turnover and move.     As I'd prepared for in my winter training sessions where I ran so many long runs in driving wind and rain, I shortened my stride and tried to increase my stride rate (turnover) to keep my legs moving.    The wind was every bit as relentless as the energy and enthusiasm of the masses lining the streets of downtown Boston.   At about mile 24 I caught a glimpse of the John Hancock Tower (?) and then shortly thereafter the Citgo sign which I believe is just about 1 mile from the finish line on Boylston.    As hard as I pushed I could not drop my pace down below 8:20 and get back anytime and watched as my shot at a sub 3:40:00 ebbed away with each mile in spite of my efforts.   Miles 23 - 26 were 8:27, 8:30, 8:30 and a most disappointing 8:54 for mile 26.   Somewhere on the last part of mile 26 around the right hand turn onto Hereford and then the left onto Boylston I picked it up and ran somewhere in the 7:45's through the finish line feeling extremely grateful for all the support my family has given me as well as being healthy enough to participate in such a grueling event.    My closing 5.4 miles (I somehow ran an extra .20 miles probably zig-zagging to water stands and around slower runners) were in 46:00 and just under 8:40 pace.  

Although I didn't run my "A" time of 3:33:00 yesterday, I did beat my "B" time of 3:44:00 and in doing so I realized there was no way I had a 3:33:00 in me yesterday.  The very best I might have otherwise run under the conditions of heat and wind would've been something in the 3:39's -- and even then I'm not sure where I could've attacked and dropped my time without risking a collapse over the challenging final miles in a headwind.

I'm really pleased with my race outcome yesterday.   Given I couldn't train at a level approaching my normal marathon preparation cycle given my injury coupled with the heat and wind, this was probably as close to a perfect race as I've ever run including my race preparation, race nutrition, hydration and even switching tactics during the race based on weather conditions.   I give credit to my Coach Lesley who also played a big role in helping me manage my expectations of training intensity through a persistent injury while also working with me on a modified approach to training that obviously served me very well yesterday.  

On a cooler day with no wind I would've obviously run faster -- but that wasn't the hand that was dealt for this year's marathon.    There was no chance for a BQ under any circumstance for me given the conditions this year; and I'd wager that the number of BQ's this year by racers is well off the historical average.

In my next postings I'll spend time reflecting on how I will train to run this course in the future as well as approaches to training -- especially given the weather variability -- which in April in Boston is never a sure bet for an optimal temperature or race conditions on the course.



















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